Gary Smith
office hours: MW 12:30 - 1:15, Carnegie 218
telephone: (909) 607-3135
e-mail: gsmith@pomona.edu

Economics 156: Security Valuation and Portfolio Theory


The required textbook is Gary Smith, Securities Valuation (available through Amazon). You can do your financial calculations with a financial calculator or with software I’ve written that is available at the SmithFinancialPlace web site.

The course web site also has a large collection of old tests (and answers). Please e-mail me with any and all questions, but assignments cannot be submitted electronically, for example, as e-mail attachments.

For a sense of the thrill of victory and agony of defeat, try Burton Malkiel, A Random Walk Down Wall Street; Michael Lewis, Liar’s Poke; Victor Niederhoffer, The Education of a Speculator; Barton Biggs, Hedgehogging; Roger Lowenstein, When Genius Failed; and any books by Andrew Tobias or “Adam Smith.” Warren Buffett's annual letters to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders are extremely insightful and wonderfully written.

Timely investment information is at Internet sites such as Bonds Online, CBS MarketWatch, Rueters, Morningstar, and ValueLine (through Blais)A huge collection of links is at Daily Stocks. For print sources, try The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Barron’s (Claremont City Library), Value Line (Honnold and at the Claremont City Library), Financial Analysts Journal (Carnegie), and Journal of Portfolio Management (Honnold). The Wall Street Journal and New York Times are two of the nation's very best newspapers; Barron’s is a weekly paper devoted to investments, with interesting articles and lots of data. Value Line is a respected source of information about thousands of individual companies. Financial Analysts Journal and Journal of Portfolio Management have empirical studies; by the end of the semester, you should be able to understand every sensible argument and recognize every blunder.


This course must be taken for a letter grade. Course grades will be based on the following:

10% weekly homework assignments Homework assignments are due at the beginning of class. I will simply record whether or not you have done the assignment; answers will be posted on the course web site.

20% challenging assignments Three challenging problems assigned during the course of the semester. You will work on 3 different 3-person teams randomly chosen by me. Each project will receive separate grades for the analysis and the written report. All 3 team members should work on each project and all will be graded on the analysis; slackers will have their grades adjusted accordingly. One team member will prepare the written report and will be graded on whether the writing is clear, persuasive, and grammatically correct. Each person in the class will write one report during the semester and consequently accumulate 4 separate challenge-problem grades during the semester, each worth 5% of the course grade: 3 team grades on analysis and 1 individual grade on a written report.

10% stock-pick paper Described in detail below.

20% midterm examination The first test, covering Chapters 1-8, will be in class on Wednesday, October 12. This will be a closed-book test emphasizing concepts, understanding, and applications.

40% final examination The final examination, covering all of the course material, will be similar to the midterm in structure, but 2 1/2 hours long, on Friday morning, December 16, from 9:00 - 11:30.

If you want extra time on a test, you can buy time at a price of 1 point a minute; for example, if a test is handed in 10 minutes after the scheduled finish time, 10 points will be subtracted from the test score.


Stock-Pick Paper

You have been given $100,000 by an eccentric millionaire to invest in one stock. If your selected stock does well, you will be paid handsomely to manage her entire portfolio; if it does poorly, you will have to get a real job.
    Call a broker; check an investment advisory service’s buy list; look in Barron’s, The Wall Street Journal, the Internet, or elsewhere for a recommended stock that sounds good to you. At the beginning of class on Monday, September 5, hand in a single sheet of paper naming this stock, identifying the source of the recommendation and its reasoning. Your purchase price is the closing price on September 5 (available on the Internet at many sites and printed in newspapers on September 6). During the semester, keep track of the daily price of this stock and the value of the NYSE composite index. Each day, look on the Internet or in The Wall Street Journal company index to see if there are any news stories about your company. You can buy and sell your stock any day up until November 30; on November 30, you must sell all of your shares. If you trade before November 30, you must tell me so on the day that you buy or sell. Whenever you do trade, your buying or selling price is the closing price that day.
    On December 5, hand in a brief paper (5 pages maximum) that (a) describes the company (Value Line or the Internet will help with this); (b) identifies the reasons you purchased the stock; (c) compares the stock's performance relative to the NYSE composite index (including a graph of daily prices); (d) compares your performance relative to a buy-and-hold strategy if you traded the stock during the semester, (e) explains why the company did well or poorly (Internet, newspaper, magazine stories may help here); and (f) explains why you either would or would not recommend keeping this stock in her portfolio. You will be graded not on how well the stock did, but on whether your report is complete, informative, and persuasive. Of course, winners are allowed to gloat and losers may sulk.


Computational Software

You can do your financial calculations with a financial calculator or with software I’ve written that is available at the SmithFinancialPlace web site.


 

Class Schedule
  Monday Wednesday
Aug 29, 31   introduction
Sept 5, 7

Chapter 2 lecture
hand in stock pick

more Chapter 2 lecture
Sept 12, 14 Chapter 3 lecture
Ch1 HW 9, 11
Ch2 HW 3, 4, 15, 17, 33, 37, 41, 50
more Chapter 3 lecture
Sept 19, 21 more Chapter 3 lecture
Chapter 4 lecture
Ch3 HW 9, 10, 11, 13, 14, 16, 17, 20, 22, 29
Sept 26, 28 more Chapter 4 lecture
Chapter 5 lecture
Ch4 HW 1, 5, 8, 11, 21, 27, 30, 34, 37, 46
Oct 3, 5 Chapter 7 lecture

more Chapter 7 lecture, EVA
Ch5 HW 1, 4, 5, 11, 16, 23, 29, 33, 34, 46
Challenge 1 due

Oct 10, 12 Chapter 8 lecture
Ch6 HW 2, 4,
Ch7 HW 4, 12, 13, 16, 18, 20, 21, 22
midterm examination
Oct 17, 19 no class
lecture on regression to mean
Ch8 HW 14, 15, 16, 21, 27, 30, 32, 33, 37, 41
Oct 24, 26

lecture on IRR

Chapter 10 lecture
Ch9 HW 5, 10, 11, 18, 19, 22, 28, 30, 31, 32
Oct 31, Nov 2 Chapter 11 lecture
Chapters 11-12 lecture
Challenge 2 due
Nov 7, 9 Chapters 13-14 lecture

Chapter 14 lecture
Ch10 HW 4, 7, 16
Ch11 HW 5, 7, 9, 27, 29
Ch12 HW 6, 9

Nov 14, 16 Chapter 15 lecture
Chapter 16 lecture
Ch13 HW 9
Ch14 HW 15, 16, 17
Ch15 HW 5, 8, 19, 21, 23, 37
Nov 21, 23 Ch 17 lecture no class
Nov 28, 30 Chapter 18 lecture
Chapter 19 lecture
Ch16 HW 14, 15, 25, 27, 43
Ch17 HW 16, 17, 24
Ch18 HW 6, 7
Challenge 3 due
Dec 5, 7 lecture on retirement plans
hand in stock-pick paper
bonus lecture

 


Old Tests


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