Gary Smith
https://www.garysmithn.com
e-mail: gsmith@pomona.edu
Office Hours: MW 12:15 - 1:15

Students in this seminar will write original research papers suitable for submission to peer-reviewed academic journals. We will choose the topics together and spend class time discussing the papers as they develop. After the semester ends, I will monitor the papers that are submitted to journals as they progress through the review process and keep you informed of their publication status. Below are some papers from previous semesters; this web site has some additional examples of papers that I've coauthored with students. However, the potential topics are not limited to these areas. You can work in pairs, but papers with two authors are expected to be more ambitious than are papers with only one author.

Our first meeting will be on Wednesday, January 17. At this meeting, we will discuss the initial topics you have chosen. In preparation for this meeting, please e-mail the entire class the tentative title of your paper and a 1-paragraph summary of what your paper will be about. Please e-mail these titles and summaries by midnight, Saturday, January 13, so that we all have time to read them carefully before the Wednesday class meeting.

This course is speaking intensive and must be taken for a letter grade. Your grade in this course will be based on your final paper (70%), speaking assignments (20%), and comments on other people's papers (10%). I will deduct 1 point on the Pomona 12-point scale from your course grade for every week (or fraction thereof) that you miss a deadline listed below; e.g., if your grade on your final paper, speaking assignments, and comments is B+, but your first draft was 3 days late and your second draft was 8 days late, your course grade will be C+.

Oral presentations will be evaluated based on their effectiveness in conveying the intended information. They should be organized, clear, and engaging so that the audience pays close attention, understands what you are trying to tell them, and retains the main points well enough to explain them to others. Avoid "um," "like, and "you know." Energy is good. Fiddling with pens, papers, and buttons is bad. Maintain eye contact and smile.

Deadlines

Outline. Our second meeting will be Monday January 22. In preparation for this meeting, please e-mail the entire class a PDF file containing a tentative outline of your paper. This outline should not be cryptic bullet points, but should describe in some detail the topic you will be researching and how you intend to proceed with your analysis in light of the comments made at the first class meeting. For example, if you intend to estimate a multiple regression equation, specify what the equation will be and the data you will use to estimate it. It is very important that you settle on a feasible topic early in the semester and not have to scramble for a topic as the deadlines come and go. Please e-mail these PDF files by midnight, Saturday, January 20, so that we will have time to read them carefully before the class meeting. At this meeting, everyone will be expected to offer constructive comments on everyone else's outlines.

Paper Proposal: Monday, January 29. In-class oral presentations of the paper you envision writing. Your classmates will e-mail you constructive suggestions on your presentation.

Introduction Section.Wednesday, February 7. This draft of introductory section of your papet should set up the topic you will be researching, summarize relevant previous research, and identify the data (if any) you will be using. Please look at some of the papers (below) from earlier courses and at some of the papers at this web site to see examples of what an introduction should look like. Specifically, summarize relevant research concisely and put proper references at the end of your paper. Please remember that an ordinary term paper might be mostly (or entirely) a summary of other people's work. In an original research paper, the focus is on your original research. A literature review should be confined to what is directly relevant to your research; i. e., you are telling the reader why your research is different from and extends the work of others. Anything else should be omitted—which means that the literature review is usually a brief introduction that motivates your paper. If you are using data, you should identify exactly what data and which statistical tests you will be using. (Be specific. Don't say "interest rate data; do say "rates of return on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds from the Ibbotson data bank.") Please e-mail these PDF files by midnight, Sunday, February 4, so that we will have time to read them carefully before the class meeting. At this meeting, everyone will be expected to offer constructive comments on everyone else's papers.

Progress Report: Wednesday, February 14. In-class oral presentations of the progress you have made and obstacles you have encountered. Your classmates will e-mail you constructive suggestions on your presentation.

First draft. Wednesday, March 27. This should be a rough first draft of your paper, with tentative results. You can anticipate that you will be asked to modify and/or expand your analysis, but you must have tentative results that can evaluated. At this stage, each student will focus on reading and making constructive suggestions on one other student's paper. Please e-mail the entire class a PDF file of your first draft by midnight Sunday, March 24, so that your reader will have time to read the paper carefully before the class meeting. The reader will give verbal comments in class and also make comments directly on the paper or e-mail comments to the author.

Second draft. Wednesday, April 10. This should be a rough second draft of your paper which incorporates the suggestions made on your first draft. Please e-mail the entire class a PDF file of your second draft by midnight Sunday, April 7, so that your reader will have time to read the paper carefully before the class meeting and other interested students can see how you are doing. The reader should make comments directly on the paper or e-mail comments.

Final paper. Wednesday, April 24. Please e-mail the entire class a PDF file of your final paper by midnight Sunday April 21, in preparation for the class meeting on Wednesday, April 24, at which you will make an oral presentation of your paper's main takeaways. Your classmates and I will give you constructive suggestions on your presentation.

Presentations. Wednesday, May 1. Selected papers will be presented at a meeting of all economics faculty and graduating seniors.

Spring 2024

1. William Taggart Curwen
2. Harry C Deliyannis
3. Samika Goel
4. Ted Sun-Joong Hwang
5. Mattin John Khoshzaban
6. Rohun Krishnan
7. Matthew Elijah Lee 
8. Apolo Samikogit
9. Sierra Tai-Brownlee
10. Eleonore Vittae
11. Ray Winter

Spring 2023

1. Ethan Dieck, Examining the impact of reduced transaction costs and fractional trading to firm liquidity and ownership following stock splits
2. Julia Dou and Kevin Wu, What’s in a Name? The Hidden Significance of Names in Marriages
3. Anaa Jibicho, Praying for Progress: Religion and Innovation
4. Jennifer Lenertz, Impacts of Local COVID-19 on US Air Travel in the Omicron Period
5. Adeena Liang, The Effect of Parenthood on Employment and Labour Force Participation Rates for Women During the COVID-19 Pandemic
6. Robert Mora, Bet Against the Grain?
7. Benjamin Muchleisen and Alexander Peterson, The Not-So-Beautiful Game
8. Seth Pope, Does a Coworker’s Skill Level Impact Performance? Evidence from Professional Golf
9. Owen Sherry, There and back again: How do bankruptcy duration and pre-negotiation impact future refiling rates for large corporate firms?
10. Charlotte Tapp, School-To-Prison Pipeline: How can Policy Makers Target the Problem?
11. Claire Van Note, Super Stock Boost? How Super Bowl Advertisements Impact Firm Stock Returns
12. Winnie Xu ,Breaking Barriers or Widening the Gap? Covid-19's Impact on Gender Disparities in Small Business Owner Earnings

Spring 2022

1. Lucie Abele, Effect of Playing Youth Club Sports on Playing a Sport in College
2. Cathy Cai, PEG Ratio: The Home Run?
3. Jack Damelio, Brace Your Wealth for the Next Storm
4. Nirali Devgan, The Semiconductor Slowdown: Supply Chain Shortages and the Implications on the Stock Market
5. Evangeline Erickson, Does a College Degree Lead to Equal Income Achievement Outcomes for First-Generation College Graduates a Decade Later?
6. Martin Fuchs, How the 2014 Air Malaysia crashes affected international tourism within the region
7. Mukund Madabhushi, Accuracy Under Pressure
8. Steven Osorio, The Impact of Ellis Act Evictions on Los Angeles Average Two-Bedroom Apartment Rent
9. Hermo Quispe, Bolivia's Economic Success and Sustainability in the 21st Century Amid Nationalization and a Commodity Boom
10. Helena Robinowitz, The Impact of Depressive Symptoms on 5C Varsity Athletic Performance
11. Arturo Valera Maltseva, Unemployment Gaps During Recessionary Periods among Different Demographic Groups
12. Sophia West, Sustainability and Performance in the Swedish Equity Market

Spring 2021

1. Wesley Chang and Michael Ran, The Impacts of Home-Court Advantage in the NBA
2. Bryan Diangson and Nicholas Jung, Bet it on Reddit: The Effects of Reddit Chatter on Highly Shorted Stocks
3. Michael Hill, The Effect of Capital Gains Taxes on Private Equity Activity
4. Sabina Kou, Stock Market Bubbles: The Impact of the Coronavirus Pandemic on the Market
5. Jed Kronenberg and Alan Tom, Evaluating the Home Mortgage Interest Deduction: A Focus on Externalities
6. Luke Layton, The Role of Healthcare Systems During Crisis: Analyzing the Impact of Healthcare System Structure on COVID-19 Outcomes
7. Henry Lu, The Gendered Effect of Larger Family Size on Married Individuals’ Willingness to Commute for Work
8. Jack Neely, The Impact of Movie and TV Show Quality on Streaming Service Subscriber Growth
9. Malik Power, An Analysis of Plant-Based Diets’ Impact on the U.S. Economy
10. Scott Shepetin, Questions of P-hacking and Data-Replicability in Oncological Therapeutics

Spring 2020

1. Thomas Anastos
2. Avery Bicks and Jay Weiss, Revisiting "The Next Best Thing to Knowing Someone Who is Usually Right
3. Efrain Gonzalez, Determinants of Corporate Debt Structure: An Examination of the Latin American Capital Markets
4. Dillon Jacob and Zachary Senator, A Reappraisal of Mean Reversion in Dow Stocks
5. Peter LaBarbera and Joshua Portnoy, Mean Reversion and the Stock Price Overreaction Effect On Top Daily % Losers
6. Sarah Landau, Sustainability and Performance in the German Equity Market; Nachhaltigkeit und Performance im deutschen Aktienmarkt
7. Meridian Lee and Elizabeth Wessinger, Director Compensation and Firm Performance: A Study of S&P 500 Listed Firms
8. Gillian Meyer, The Impact of Police Residency Requirements on Police Violence: A Cross-Sectional Analysis
9. Jacob Niskey
10. Owen Rosebeck and John Zuk, Harvesting Capital Gains, Losses, and Rebalancing the Portfolio: Historically Testing an Investment Strategy

Spring 2019

1. Heidi Artigue, A cross-country analysis of childcare time for married and single parents, 2000-2017
2. Naomi Baer and Eria Barry, The Name Game: The Importance of Resourcefulness, Ruses, and Recall in Stock Ticker Symbols
3. T. Rex Bodia, Assessing Individual Income Mobility Over Time
4. Nathan Gallatin and Dan Hill, California Housing Markets: A Tale Twice Told
5. Sam Glazer, Predictable Research & Development Quality: Testing an Investment Strategy
6. Jordan Hawkins and Jack Storrs, College Football: Doing Less With More and More With Less
7. Corbin Koch, The Impact of Market Transparency on Trading Costs in Fixed Income Markets
8. Wesley Liang, China Housing Market: Boom or Bubble?
9. Connor Loveland, Win Some, Lose Some: Regression Toward the Mean in College Football Wagers
10. Akira Nagao, Is Abenomics Driving Outbound Cross-Border Mergers and Acquisitions Activity in Japan?
11. Anna Yu, IPO Performance and Money Left on the Table

Spring 2018

1. Jacob Feord, The Missing Link—Still Missing
2. Jack Gale, Value Creation by Activist Hedge Funds
3. Adam Hinthorne, Rent Growth Expectations and the Amazon Effect in Seattle
4. Yufeng Hu, Interest Rate Swaps and Nonfinancial Real Estate Firm Market Value in the US
5. Cade Hulse, The Impact of Clinical Drug Trials on Biotechnology Companies
6. Emily Kuo and David Martinez, Value and Reason: Analyzing Stock Split Excess Returns
7. Zane Latif and Ross Steinberg, March Madness Model Meta-Analysis
8. Jiwon Lee, Examining the Household Responses to the 2008 Recession Wealth Shocks: A Natural Experiment Testing the Non-Unitary Household Decision Model of Intra-Household Bargaining
9. Evan Lloyd, The Economic Impact of the “Passenger Economy” on Real Estate: An Analysis of Uber Growth and Parking Structure Sales
10. Kevin Masini, Regression to the Mean at the Masters Golf Tournament
11. Ben Meade, An Uneven Playing Field for Fighting Cancer
12. Candace Raymond, Effects of Perception of Childhood Social Status on Charitable Giving
13. Sterling Schwartz, Testing the Efficacy of A Momentum-Based, Long-Short Equity Hedge Fund: Do past prices create alpha-generating trading opportunities?
14. Paul Westcott, Estimatring the Buffer Value of Ground Water: A Look at California Almond Growers

Spring 2017

1. Derrick Choe and Paul Tran, An Extension to the Profits Theory of Investment: Less Competition, More Growth?
2. Katie Hill and Alyse Winchester, Multilingualism in the Los Angeles Unified School District: An Analysis of English Language Learner Programs
3. Xuanchi Liu and Jinglin Wang, The Determinants of International Equity Holdings
4. Charlie Fries, Steve Smith, and Mitchell Finkel, Impact of Digital Marketing on User Acquisition
5. Yashna Nandan, Mandatory Medi-Cal Managed Care: Effects on Healthcare Access and Utilization
6. Jamie Kerester and Josh Kim, Private Equity and IPO Performance: A Case Study of the US Energy & Consumer Sectors
7. Steven Glick, Impact of Important Calendar Dates on the Stock Market

Spring 2015

1. Sabino Fernandes, The Role of Political and Economic Institutions in Public Finance and Growth
2. Dylan Goodman, Labor Market Effects of a High School Diploma--A Racial Approach
3. Tianyou Gu, Oil Shocks and the U.S. Macroeconomy: Recent Evidence
4. Victoria Gyorffy, Looming Tech Bubble? A New Approach to Predicting Speculative Bubbles
5. Nathan Jefferson, A Look at the Educational Impacts of Philadelphia Charter Schools
6. Yiting Ji, The Labor Market Effects of the 1996 Atlanta Summer Olympics
7. Kevin Lu, The Valuation of Shots in the NBA
8. Kyle McAndrews, Evaluating the Accuracy of Value at Risk Approaches
9. Kristen McCormack, Income, weather, and transit dependence: Examining public transportation ridership in the Chicago Metropolitan Area
10. Antonela Miho, Do free markets imprison? The effects of economic liberalization and financial deregulation in developing countries during external economic booms and crises
11. Andrew Palmer, Impact Of Welfare Spending As A Percent Of GDP On The Schooling Progress of Children Within United States of America
12. Rishi Sangani, Analyzing Changes to The 2011 MLB CBA
13. Nathan Shekita, The Effect of Prison Populations on Crime Rates: Revisiting Steven Levitt's Conclusions
14. Jacob Wilson, Calculating Fortune's Favor
15. Carol Xiang, Comparing the Labor Market Return to An Associate Degree and to A Bachelor'ss Degree

Spring 2014

1. Adam Belzberg, Trending Trades: Investigating Comparative Advantage through Vertical Specialization in Supply Chains
2. Ishan Dutt and Aiden Saavedra Buckley, The Volatility Trap: Effects on Human Capital Accumulation
3. Angela Gunn, Substitution Effects and Price Elasticity of Demand in Large New York City Buildings
4. Mira Howard and Johnny Huynh, What Causes Skin Tone Disparities in Human Capital
5. Johnny Huynh, Heterogeneity in Conditional Cash Transfer Effects: Evidence from a Randomized Trial in Malawi
6. Alexander Johann and Kelly Ren, Foster Care Reuniication and Re-Entry
7. Julia Miller, Revisiting the Valentine's Day and Halloween Birth Timing Phenomenon
8. Michael Zurhellen, Sunny Upside? The Relationship Between Sunshine and Stock Market Returns, Review of Economic Analysis, 7 (2), 2015, 173-183.

Spring 2013

1. Samuel Antill, How do Investors Respond to Apocalypse Scares?
2. Gabriel Baum, Great Companies: The Secrets of Success are Still a Secret, Journal of Investing, 24 (3), 2015, 61-72.
3. Nicholas Bordner, The Effect of Ambient Item Presence on Participation in a Virtual Microtransaction Economy
4. Ashvin Gandhi, Heterogeneous Peer Effects: A Study of Education in the Third World
5. Corey Jacinto and Luke Sweeney, Biracial Wage Differentials in an Increasingly Cosmopolitan America
6. Bryan Kevan, Consistency and factorial invariance of the Davidson trauma scale in heterogeneous populations: results from the 2010 Chilean earthquake: Consistency and Factorial Invariance of the DTS, International Journal of Methods in Psychiatric Research, 2016, 10.1002/mpr.1516.
7. Josh Rodriguez, College, Immigrants and Earnings: A study on how college type and national origin affects a person's early adult earnings
8. Guy Stevens, Effects of Incentives: Evidence from Major League Baseball
9. Erin Toothaker, Commercial Building Electricity Price Sensitivity: Pricing as a Tool for Consumption Efficiency Management
10. Kyle Weber, Changes in the Asian-White Wage Gap Over Time: An Analysis Using Parametric and Non-Parametric Methods
11. Hannah Yung, Market Transformation in Transformative Works: The Effects of Introducing Incentives in Markets for Fanfiction
12. Yuanxi Zhang, Testing a Closed-End Fund Investment Strategy
13. Maria Zhu, An Analysis of General Education Requirements on Course Enrollment at Pomona College
14. Alexander Zou, To What Extent Does Income Affect Voting Behavior When Accounting For Race?

Spring 2012

1. Daniel Brown, Maximizing and Satisficing: Learning Effects are Associated with the study of Economics
2. Gabriel Byberg, Addressing China's Trade Surplus: A Consumption vs. Appreciation Approach
3. Chris Byington, Sarbanes-Oxley and IPO Analyst Bias
4. Jennifer Hebein, The Impact of Mega-Events on Inbound Tourism Demand
5. Jenya Kahn-Lang, The Effects of Electric Utility Decoupling on Energy Efficiency, The Energy Journal, 2016l, 37 (4).
6. Jeff Levere and Max Gold, Tax-Loss Selling and the Year-End Behavior of Dow Jones Stocks, Accounting and Finance Research, 2 (1), 2013.
7. John Lewis, Incumbent Pharmaceutical Firms Integration of Biotechnology
8. Jaron Moler and Max Gold, Measuring and Comparing the Brand Equity of Pomona College and the 5-C Colleges
9. Sam Trachman, An Empirical Assessment of the Performance and Competitive Effects of Los Angeles County Charter Schools, Undergraduate Economic Review, March 2013
10. Christopher Wright, Statistical Predictions of March Madness: An Examination of the NCAA Men's Basketball Championship
11. Tina Zhang, The Hireability of Recent College Graduates: Thge Impact of Varsity Athletics on the Job Screening Process

Spring 2011

1. Ryan Balikian, Touching the Bases: Does Making the World Series have an Economic Impact in Home Cities?
2. Carl Brehm, The Female Veteran Wage Gap
3. Bjorn Commers, Forecasting Box Office Revenue
4. Owen Deutsch, Are QCT Designations Appropriate LIHTC Policy?
5. Naomi Laporte and Nanako Yano, Moral Hazard and Health Care Utilization
6. Eric Morton and Cosimo Thawley, What is the Long-term Fiscal Imbalance?
7. Nathan Obaid. Skilled Emigration and Innovation in South Korea
8. Jae Won Saw, Stock Market Development and Economic Growth Revisited: Times Series Model Approach
9. Daniel Tan, Education and Unemployment Duration: A Panel Study of Young Adults
10. Richard Wu, Do Long-Term Contracts Affect Player Performance in the NBA?
11. Matthew Walkup, How to Crack the CAC

Spring 2010

1. Andrew Ayres and Daniel Kadvany, Is LEED Building Certification Worth It?
2. Kerry Annette Belodoff and Janice Sara Park, Marginal Returns to Education for Men and Women
3. Brian Borger and Christopher Strieter, The Effects of Price and Critic Rating on Wine Production
4. Alexander Etzkowitz and Jonathan Noah Kadish, Explaining Long-Term IPO Performance: Early Investors, Underpricing, and Analyst
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5. Alan Fiedorek and Boris Ostrovsky, Overpaid Baseball Players
6. Rachel Leah Haislet and Didem Sairoglu, Television Awards and Ratings

Spring 2008

1. Joshua Blonz. The Economics of Obesity
2. Michel Grosz, The Evolution of Performance Pay: Evidence from Mexico
3. Michael Levere and Robert Kurtzman, Poker Player Behavior After Big Wins and Big Losses. Management Science, 55 (9), 2009, 1547-1555.
4. Matthew Lapolla, Do Salaries Match Results? An Analysis of National Hockey League General Managers’ Efficiency in the Unrestricted Free Agent Market
5. David Roy and Christine Yew, The Effect of Intelligence on Athletic Performance
6. Elliot Shields, Irresponsible Ethanol.
7. Kohei Suwabe and Reymundo Constancio. How the 2003 Tax Reform Act Affected the Distribution of Dividends and Share Repurchases

Spring 2007

1. Dan Golden.
2. James Cornish.
3. Nicholas Douglas. OreoRun Demand Equations
4. Nicholas Eubank. The Aid Curse: A Political or Economic Phenomenon?
5. Mark Junod. Minimizing Firm Structure Costs: A Graph Theoretical Approach
6. Ben Kaufman, Christopher McAlary, and Gary Smith. How Poker Players React to Big Wins and Losses
7. Jeffrey Nanda.
8. Pat Kelly & Erin Noble. Do investors prefer companies with happy employees?
9. Laura Pinzur and Gary Smith. First Names and Longevity, Perceptual and Motor Skills, 108, 2009, 149-160.
10. You Ning Sun & Andrea Vijverberg. Portfolio Optimization by Cluster Analysis

Spring 2006

1. Anita Arora, Lauren Capp, and Gary Smith. The Real Dogs of the Dow, Journal of Wealth Management, 10 (4), 2008, 64-72.
2. Aaron Chaum & Bryan Price. What Affects Long Term Stock Prices?
3. Kofi Domfeh, Patrick Hall, and Dylan Pelletier-Ross. The Little Green Book.
4. Aaron Perez. Player Performance in Their Contract Year.
5. Joe Steinberg, Rob Wertheimer, and Gary Smith. “The Next Best Thing to Knowing Someone Who is Usually Right,” Journal of Wealth Management, 9 (3), 2006, 51-60.

Spring 2005

1. Jeff Anderson and Gary Smith. A Great Company Can be a Great Investment, Financial Analysts Journal, 62 (4), 2006, 86-93.
2. Alexander Cannon & Abiel Reinhart. The Value of a Reputation: Evidence from Amazon.com.
3. Reid Dorsey-Palmateer. Sovereign Credit Ratings and the Effect of Disaggregated Aid on Borrowing.
4. Mike Gechter. Examining the Sex Ratio in Pakistan.
5. Alex Head, Julia Wilson, and Gary Smith. Would a Stock By Any Other Ticker Smell as Sweet?, Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 49 (2), 2009, 551-561.
6. Seth Kerstein. Health insurance and Teenage Substance Abuse.
7. Nate Pealer & John Clithero. Is There a Housing Bubble in Irvine, California? A Repeat-Sales Analysis Using a New Data Set?, International Real Estate Review, 8 (1), 2005, 110-127).