Gary Smith
https://www.garysmithn.com
e-mail: gsmith@pomona.edu

Office Hours: MW 12:15 - 1:15

Economics 57b: Economic Statistics (Carnegie 214, MW 11:00 - 12:15)

Zoom Lectures
 

Learning Statistics by Doing Statistics

"I hear and I forget.
I see and I remember.
I do and I understand.
"

This course has been designed to teach statistical reasoning. The required textbooks are Gary Smith, Introduction to Statistical Reasoning, and Gary Smith, Standard Deviations: Flawed Assumptions, Tortured Data, and Other Ways to Lie with Statistics, (both available through several online sellers). I will also give you two supplemental chapters, Probability and Multiple Regression.

You can use this free user-friendly computational software or a commercial statistical package, such as STATA, or a spreadsheet program, like Excel. Also try my StatQuiz and StatGames software.

The class schedule is below. Please read each assigned chapter before class and please come to every class. Class discussions will assume that you have read the assigned chapter beforehand. If you miss more than one class, your numerical score for the course will be reduced by 1% for each additional class you miss.

This course must be taken for a letter grade. Course grades will be based on the following:

40% team projects Randomly selected 2-person teams will work together on eight projects. You can choose a project from this list or make up one of your one, but you must let me know your choice ahead of time so that we don't have 6 teams doing the same project. The oral presentations can utilize Keynote, Powerpoint, or other visual aids. The class and I will give each speaker constructive suggestions. The presentations will be evaluated based on their effectiveness in conveying the intended information. They should be professional, organized, clear, and engaging so that the audience pays close attention, understands what you are trying to tell them, and retains the main points well enough to explain them to others. Avoid "um," "like," and "you know." Energy is good. Fiddling with pens, papers, and buttons is bad. Maintain eye contact and smile.

0% textbook exercises Five assigned exercises from each chapter of Introduction to Statistical Reasoning and the two supplementary chapters; it is fine to discuss the questions with other students, but try to answer them in your own words. Answers will be posted on this web site after class on the day the assignment is due. Your homework will not be graded, but can help you learn the material—and homework question sometimes show up on tests.

20% midterm The midterm examination is on Wednesday, February 28, and will cover Introduction to Statistical Reasoning Chapters 1 through 5, the supplementary probability chapter, and Standard Deviations Chapters 1 through 8 and 10. This will be a closed-book test emphasizing concepts, understanding, and applications. Calculators are not allowed, but you can use an 8.5 by 11 sheet of paper with notes written on one side.

40% final exam The final examination is on Friday, May 10, from 9:00 - 11:30 in the morning, and will cover all the course material. The final will be similar to the midterm in structure, but twice as long. Calculators are not allowed, but you can use an 8.5 by 11 sheet of paper with notes written on both sides.

If you want extra time on a test, you can buy time at a price of 1 point a minute; for example, if a test is handed in 10 minutes after the scheduled finish time, 10 points will be subtracted from the test score.


Class Schedule
  Monday Wednesday
January 15, 17   Lecture: introduction
January 22, 24 Lecture: ISR Chapter 2, SD Chapters 1, 5
Zoom Lecture: ISR Chapter 2, SD Chapters 1, 5
Jan 29, 31 Lecture: ISR Chapter 3, SD Chapter 7
Ch2 HW: 7, 14, 18, 26, 34
Lecture: ISR Chapter 4, SD Chapters 2-4
February 5, 7

Chapter 3 projects
Ch3 HW: 2, 10, 34, 40, 50

Lecture: Supp. probability chapter, SD Chapters 6, 8, 10
February 12, 14 Lecture: Supp. probability chapter, SD Chapters 6, 8, 10
Ch4 HW: 8, 18, 34, 38, 50
Lecture: ISR Chapter 5
Supp. probability HW: 24, 26, 44, 47, 51
February 19, 21

Zoom: Chapter 5 projects
Lecture: ISR Chapter 5

Lecture: ISR Chapters 5 and 6
Ch5 HW: 6, 12, 16, 28, 34
Feb 26, 28 Lecture: ISR Chapter 6
Review
midterm examination
March 4, 6 Lecture: ISR Chapter 7, SD Chapters 11-18
Chapter 6 projects
Ch6 HW: 12, 26, 28, 44, 50
Lecture: ISR Chapter 7, SD Chapters 11-18
March 11, 13 spring break spring break
March 18, 20 Chapter 7 projects
Lecture ISR Chapter 8
Ch7 HW: 6, 10, 30, 36, 48
Lecture ISR Chapter 8
March 25, 27 Chapter 8 projects
Lecture: ISR Chapter 10
Ch8 HW: 8, 18, 34, 36, 48
Lecture: practice exercises
April 1, 3 Chapter 10 projects
Lecture: simple regression
Ch10 HW: 2, 6, 32, 36, 40
Lecture: multiple regression
April 8, 10

Lecture: ISR Chapter 11

Lecture: regression examples
April 15, 17 Chapter 11 projects
lecture: NHST
Ch11 HW: 6, 8, 14, 32, 50
Lecture: regression examples
April 22, 24 Lecture: The AI Delusion
Multiple regression HW: 6, 28, 37, 40, 41
Lecture: More AI & Regression to the Mean
April 29, May 1

multiple regression projects
Lecture: review

Lecture: review

ISR: Introduction to Statistical Reasoning

SD: Standard Deviations

 



Old Tests